Weekly Outlook 5/11/18 to 9/11/18


The end of the “Merkel era”

Similarly to what had happened in the elections in Bavaria, the CDU lost about 11 percentage points in the State of Hesse, with respect to the elections of 2013. For that reason, the Chancellor has decided on what could mark the end of an era. In fact, Angela Merkel made both the decision of renouncing to the leadership of the German Christian Democrats after 18 years and not to run for Chancellor on the next elections. Furthermore, the possibility of leaving earlier than 2021, date of expiry of the mandate, cannot be excluded. All eyes are now on potential developments in this CDU crisis, as a political change in Germany could strongly affect the future of the EU.

“Red October”

October is just gone and brought with it some questions about the worst performance of the markets since 2012, as the MSCI (index of Global Stock markets) has declined by 7.33% over the past 30 days. In particular, US stock markets have recorded losses in one of the industries with the highest returns: the technological one. Amazon, for instance has dropped 11% over the last month. Therefore, the above-mentioned questions are the following: what has caused this “red October”? Was it just external factors, like political tensions arisen both in the US and in Europe, driving the markets? Or should we be concerned with a potential turning point after 10 years of economic growth in the US?

Additional Information

  • Mid-term elections are close: Americans will go to the ballot box tomorrow with the intention of voting for each of the 435 members of the House of Representatives and for 35 members of the 100 Senate seats. Results will be considered as a response of the electorate to the first 2 years of the Trump administration.

  • Tomorrow the Eurostat will release GDP year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth figures with respect to the month of July. Most forecasters predict a 1.8% yearly rate of economic growth in the Eurozone.

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