Weekly Outlook 12/11/18 to 16/11/18

USA midterm elections: how will Trump’s policy change? In the light of the recent loss of the House of Representatives by the Republican Party at the midterm elections, the international community is still wondering whether Trump’s decisions will shift to a more moderate policy line. The world is dreaming of a more diligent president playing on the international checkerboard, even if no one is going to bet on a backward step on foreign affairs matters. The next few weeks will give us a first hint of what the future of this Administration’s policy holds.

Commission’s Economic Forecast: how will the euro-area go in the short--term? On Thursday, the European Commission published its autumn 2018 Economic Forecast. It covers the years 2018, 2019 and 2020 and includes data on GDP, investment, employment, unemployment, inflation, and general government gross debt for all 28 EU member states. With reference to the document: “all member states are forecasted to continue growing, though at a slower pace, thanks to the strength of domestic consumption and investment”. When it comes to public finances, the general decline of each nation’s deficit is coming to a halt next year - for the first time since 2009 - as the fiscal stance turns slightly expansionary in 2019. Nevertheless, the debt-to-GDP ratios are projected to continue to fall supported by debt-decreasing primary surpluses and continued growth.

Additional Information

  • On Wednesday 14th, the Eurostat will release GDP year-per-year and quarter-per-quarter prospects of growth in the Eurozone with respect to the month of July

  • Germany will publish its GDP quarter-per-quarter and year-per-year growth forecasts with respect to the month of July

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