Weekly Outlook 10/12/2018 to 14/10/2018


ECB Press Conference

The European Central Bank (ECB) press conference will be held on Thursday 13, about 45 minutes after the Minimum Bid Rate is announced. The conference is structured as follows: firstly, a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The press conference will examine: 1) which have been the crucial factors affecting the ECB's interest rate decision 2) the overall economic outlook and inflation. Thus, economic agents can infer signals regarding future monetary policy and react accordingly: we will see on Thursday whether a positive or negative short-term trend will prevail.

U.S. Fed Chair Testifies

On Wednesday December 12, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be called to examine the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions. The structure will follow the ECB press conference: prepared statement with following Q&A session. As always, Powell’s speeches will influence the markets and, in this case, particular emphasis will be given to his words since the new Fed interest rate decision is approaching: will Powell give insights to the markets, accommodating their expectations of a further (low) increase in interest rates?

Additional Information

  • The rate on the marginal lending facility, which offers overnight credit to banks from the Eurosystem, is forecasted to be stable at 0.25%.

  • The deposit facility rate, which banks may use to make overnight deposits with the Eurosystem, is projected to be stable at -0.4%

  • Eurozone interest rate forecasts, at which agents look closely (since short-term interest rates are those that reveal ECB monetary policy guidelines the most), is also stable at 0%.

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