Weekly Outlook 17/12/2018 to 21/12/2018


Pressure mounts on May’s establishment for a second referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU The leader of the British executive is facing a growing pressure - from both external and internal members of her party - for a decision on the Brexit matter. Some senior cabinet figures believe a second referendum may be the only way out of the actual impasse. Among them Tony Blair stands out and claims firmly against the “irresponsiveness” of Mrs. May. Furthermore, the International Trade secretary Liam Fox became the first Brexiteer inside May’s government to publicly back calls to offer MPs a free vote on how to end the impasse after EU leaders last week rejected the Prime Minister’s appeal to amend her withdrawal agreement. As a result, Mrs. May is under mounting pressure to let the public decide the terms of Brexit in order to break the deadlock in parliament.

Mario Draghi’s speeches: the turning point to a QE retreat and the call for a stronger integration to fight the rising tide of nationalism The Asset Purchase Program, the non-conventionary policy that aims to boost lending, spending and inflation through liquidity injections into the economy is bound to shift from a quantitative easing (QE) to a “quantitative tightening”. More precisely, the Governor declared: “Our net purchases under the APP will end in December 2018. At the same time, we are enhancing our forward guidance on reinvestment. Accordingly, we intend to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for as long as necessary to maintain favorable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation”.

Additional Information.

  • On Wednesday the 19th, the Fed will make its monetary policy statement and will communicate the Board’s decision on the interest rate (expected to reach 2.25%). Then the FOMC will publish the economic projections and run a press conference in order to fully update the public.

  • On Thursday the 20th, the Bank of England will make its interest rate decision. The interest rate is expected to reach 0.75%.

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