Weekly Outlook 04/03/2019 to 08/03/2019

Will the ECB maintain its interest rates?

On Thursday 7th, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate for this year. Since 2016, interest rates have been at 0% and are expected to stay the same in order to converge inflation rate to the goal of just below 2%. However, external factors are now different. By the end of 2018, the European economy was slowing down, which means that, for now, interest rates are likely to remain unchanged. Furthermore, on the same day, the ECB will present the economic policy decision for the next year, as well as GDP figures relative to the previous 3 months.

Canadian Economy

On Friday 8th, Canada will release its statistics on the unemployment rate (5,8% in January) and the Net Change in Employment for the last quarter. These two measures are very important since they demonstrate how the Canadian economy is evolving. If the unemployment rate has gone up and/or the NCE gone down, it might mean that there’s no expansion of the labor market and the economy is weakening. A decrease of the unemployment rate and/or an increase on the NCE would, on the other hand, signal positive economic developments.

Additional Information

  • Next Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rates and the Bank of Canada will do a similar announcement on Thursday.

  • On the 9th of March, the organization responsible for statistics in China (NBSC) will release the Chinese Consumer Price Index which helps track inflation and consumers’ buying trends. A pronounced variation (positive or negative) might lead to an intervention from The People’s Bank of China, mostly in order to control inflation.

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